James Carville, Ezra Klein and the "Washington Post" wanted a mini-primary, a vetting of the Democratic candidates. But the truth is literally one minute after being told by Biden that he was dropping out, Kamala called her all potential opponents and asked for their endorsement. Just that fast. Sewing up the nomination for herself. Got to give her credit for that, even though I was not of the belief she would be the best candidate, but now she is.
Just a couple of weeks ago, Trump's victory was a fait accompli. I mean the man took a bullet! Now that's in the rearview mirror and seemingly has no effect. We now live in internet time, which is very fast, laden with a zillion events, you may peak today, but tomorrow you may be history. In any vertical you must build to last, momentary success doesn't yield long term success, where all the profits lie.
So now there is a huge surge of excitement for Kamala, to a degree I've never seen in my lifetime. It far eclipses the Eugene McCarthy surge of '68. Then again, the enemy was Nixon, not the fall of democracy.
Did you see that that was Biden's sole campaign strategy, to point out the negatives of Trump? You can't win without talking about the future, which Kamala is doing with her "freedom" campaign.
And Trump is too stupid to know that debating Harris is his only way out of this mess. Right now, Kamala is giving scripted speeches in a bubble. All vetted, playing to acolytes. There's nothing wrong with that, it's just that those who remember her from 2020 know that she came across poorly in the debates. If Trump were smart, he'd roll the dice and have a debate and hope that Harris made a mistake, revealed negatives, but the Donald is running scared.
If Trump was smart, and he's not, and it's only Trump, he's running the Republican Party, he'd kick Vance off the ticket and nominate a moderate with experience. Why not? It was his choice. We're living in a new era. Vance is a liability. But to axe him would show a flaw, and Trump believes he's invulnerable.
But the Democrats must realize they cannot win by painting Trump as the doofus he is. That is not a winning strategy. But the best thing about Trump is he's self-immolating. Just give the man a mic and he blows himself up, and it's laughable.
So how long will the Kamala excitement last? Traditionally, not very long. But we're in uncharted territory. People now have a champion, they see the way out, and they're excited about that. It's like a football team that's down and suddenly scores a couple of touchdowns, the fans are excited until the final whistle, whereas the previous leaders and their fans are demoralized, how did they blow this lead?
Furthermore, contrary to insiders' predictions, the lack of vetting has helped Harris. By not having to duke it out in primaries, most people are unaware of her flaws. In truth, most people don't know much about Harris, Trump said he only recently realized she was BLACK!
That's how out of touch Donald is. Just like the Democratic Party that tried to convince us Joe was up to another term. Have you seen him on camera recently? He seems a step away from the old folks home.
But even more interesting is how Biden was instantly forgotten. We debated his candidacy for over a year, it was front page news, and then he exits and it's like he was never in the race. That's the modern paradigm. You're here until you're gone, and then you're in the rearview mirror, discarded.
To tell you the truth, the less people see Kamala the better. Not because she's Kamala, but because her candidacy is now bigger than her, it's democracy versus potential fascism, it's dirty old man versus modern woman, it's us versus them and finally we're winning!
The "Washington Post" still has Harris behind in the electoral college, in the toss-up states. But speaking of toss-up, Nate Silver says the election now is one.
What Democrats have to realize is... Many people voting for Trump hate the man. But they want fewer regulations, fewer taxes, fewer takers, defeat of the woke and the support of Israel...the list goes on and on. How many of these people can be brought to Harris's side?
I'm not sure any can.
But these elections are decided by a small margin. Getting out the vote is key.
Then again, if you're Black and you're in one of the toss-up states... Odds are you're going to stand in line for hours to cast your vote while whites walk right in.
This is the Supreme Court that got rid of the Voting Rights Act, saying there was no racism anymore. Yeah, and no antisemitism either...
The Republicans have done their best to stack the game against the Democrats. But just because the game doesn't favor you, that does not mean you cannot win.
Trump is worse off for not being vetted. By staying out of the debates he not only didn't hone his chops, didn't get to adjust his presentation, he came across as imperial, a deserving king, but the man is all flash and no substance, and doesn't seem to know it.
And Elon Musk's X/Twitter, under the rubric of absolute freedom of speech, shut down the account of White Dudes for Harris. Musk himself is on the run, did you read the exposé in the "Wall Street Journal" on Tesla's self-driving capability? Turns out it's massively flawed, because Musk insisted on cameras only, excluding lidar, trying to save money, and crashes keep happening. And now the "Journal" is doubling-down, questioning the future of Tesla robotaxis, upon which the entire company's value is based. Don't forget that the "Journal" single-handedly brought down Theranos. And the Elizabeth Holmes company even hired David Boies to intimidate reporting, and that didn't work.
A house of cards I tell you.
How could the Democratic Party get it so wrong? How could it not see what the average citizen did?
Which begs the question what industries are blind as to the needs of their customers. Does the American public really want the tripe the major record companies are purveying? The movie studios are completely lost. The only thing that seems to consistently work is reboots and sequels but fewer of them than ever before succeed. The lifeblood of the movies is innovation, that's what brings the audience to the theatre, but it's scarce, because the brass is afraid.
This Kamala surge is a phenomenon.
But please don't mistake the excitement for ultimate victory. It's a long way until November. Just like Trump's wound is now a footnote, Harris could screw up or the public could move on...
People love to support a winner. And right now, that's what Harris appears to be.
As even the Republican Party sees Trump as a loser. The news is filled with his faux pas, criticism from the old school. They're coming out of the woodwork, Sununu in the "Times," telling Trump to cool it, but he never does, he's like a spinning top, out of control, listening to no one.
And tone-deaf to boot.
And another Republican told Trump to stop trotting out B-list celebrities, when the Democrats have all the A-players.
It's an amazing movie to watch. The script has been flipped, now Trump is the old guy one step from the graveyard, a man who has lost a step.
We're never going to heal the nation. Not as long as we have two different news systems, if not more, not as long as the public is uneducated with no power of analysis. Now is the time to carry the ball to the goal line.
But the momentum can shift just that easily. As Carville said, be ready for the Harris attacks, hell, if you're on X/Twitter, the site is flooded with them already.
It's not going to be easy, but it's doable.
All because losing Joe Biden dropped out.
--
Visit the archive: lefsetz.com/wordpress/
--
Listen to the podcast:
-iHeart: ihr.fm/2Gi5PFj
-Apple: apple.co/2ndmpvp
--
www.twitter.com/lefsetz
--
If you would like to subscribe to the LefsetzLetter,
www.lefsetz.com/lists/?p=subscribe&id=1
If you do not want to receive any more LefsetzLetters, Unsubscribe
To change your email address this link
No comments:
Post a Comment