Can the public accept that "Cowboy Carter" and its single "Texas Hold 'Em" were not country hits? NO!
So I'm reading the concert grosses in "Pollstar." What's interesting is not the first page, what sells out, but what does not.
Like Thirty Seconds to Mars. Which only had 38% sold at Merriweather Post Pavilion.
Now in truth, that's a shed, capacity is 15,000, but how many people want to sit way back on their ass and... A hit act will reach capacity. Thirty Seconds to Mars only sold 5,702 tickets. A gross of 400k, not bad, but the demand is just not there.
As a matter of fact, that was a trend at Merriweather Post. Acts that did not come close to selling out. Is demand for these acts diminished, do people just not want to go to this venue, or has concert mania declined?
Read the grosses and you sense something is off. People just won't go to see anything anymore.
And what gets someone out of the house to pay so much money to see an act?
I mean the prices are so high, you don't go on a lark. It's not a casual investment, you've got to care. And you care about the classic rock acts, some MTV acts, some new hit acts and then...
If you haven't had a hit lately, you're in trouble, like the Chainsmokers.
But comedy? Comedy is raging. Because it captures the zeitgeist, provides something music used to but rarely does anymore.
But what impressed me most was Slipknot. Which played the CFG Bank Arena in Baltimore, not far from Merriweather Post, albeit less of a schlepp. Slipknot went clean in Baltimore, 11,334 seats, for a gross of $893,327 (tickets were $33.50 to $143.50). AND THEY'VE NEVER EVER HAD A HIT!
It's not like Slipknot gets no ink. But the average American has no idea who the band is. Yet, eleven thousand people journeyed out of their homes, a big effort, to lay down their cash to see the band.
And it's not like the support acts were driving sales, they were those well-known bands Knocked Loose and Orbit Culture, HUH? No, people wanted to see Slipknot.
You're either a Slipknot fan or you're not. Either you buy into their ethos or you don't. And their ethos is one of the other. You're different from everybody else, you go to the show as a pilgrimage, to unite with thinking people... Yes, Slipknot thinks, it's easier to do a me-too rap song or appear on a TV singing show than create a whole new identity and culture. And that's what Slipknot has done.
The script has flipped. It's the late sixties all over again. A bifurcation. The bands with catalogs, with history, who have an identity, are the ones doing business. The ones with the hits? You live and die by the hit, and if you ain't got one on the chart right now, good luck selling tickets.
We had a consolidation in festivals. Are we going to see a consolidation, a reduction in the number of live gigs in general?
It's not cheap to go on the road. People have to buy tickets to make the economics work. And there might be a mania over Oasis, but for you?
And let's be clear, Slipknot tickets are relatively cheap. Which augurs for return engagements if you deliver.
Of course one big hit will bring out the scalpers... But they didn't scalp Grateful Dead tickets, people just asked for free ones, a miracle.
The news and the labels are enmeshed in an antique paradigm.
Was there demand for "Cowboy Carter"?
NOT AMONGST THE TRADITIONAL COUNTRY MARKET!
"Billboard" was afraid of racial backlash and considered "Texas Hold 'Em" to be country, and it topped their chart. If you consider Bob Dylan klezmer, he's going to top that chart with every release. As is his son Jakob and his son-in-law, Peter Himmelman.
You don't need a hit to survive.
You have to reorient your vision. View the internet as your friend. Don't complain about streaming payments, be thrilled people can readily discover you and become fans and give you money, year after year after year.
It's not only the show, but the merch... It's based on belief. There is little belief in a hit single. It's about the body of work. The attitude, the culture.
If you're just another me-too singer, you've got to be really damn good or lucky or both to break through. Homie don't play that no more.
An evolution is happening right in front of our faces. And despite all the hype about the Spotify Top 50 and stadium sellouts, the action is occurring at the bottom. The bottom is growing, coming up, and the top is getting ever thinner and the middle is no-man's land.
You've got to decide which side you're on.
Once again I point to Zach Bryan. He could sell out stadiums before he had a hit. The internet, the people spread the word. It wasn't radio action, it was not playlists, Bryan was selling authenticity, credibility in a sold out world.
This is the power of music. This is what you don't get from the social media influencers.
And being on the awards show is much more important than winning. Quick, name two winners from last year's CMAs... Almost no one can!
And fewer people are watching awards shows.
Which means you're on your own.
All the infrastructure of the past is on life support. Radio promotion. Retail price and placement. The new world is much more vague, there are no rules, so those with the microphone default to the old rules and the only people who are buying them are themselves and those who really don't care.
Meanwhile, tribute bands/shows are all over the chart. That sells tickets. And sure, there were hits, but Queen was much more than the hits, as were the Eagles and...
Interesting times.
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